What Can You Expect from February's Nonfarm Payroll Release?

I received a great email today. The email was from the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange).

It gives the market consensus for tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls, the derivative auction expectation for the same, the distribution of the expectation, and the evolution of the expectation over the last few days.

As I have documented in this blog, that information (plus several hundred hours worth of research results that I am supplying) is about all you need.

The economic derivatives news (actual release minus the market expectation from the economic derivative auction) drives financial markets.

You will find a lot of prognostications about the NFP. Trust me, this is the best information there is. Bar none. The information in this email is fatidic, a goldmine of free information.

Here it is:

What Can You Expect from February's Nonfarm Payroll Release? Friday, February 2 at 8:30 a.m. EST Economists' consensus - 160,000 CME Auction Market participants' consensus - 134,800 Based on previous auctions that occurred Tuesday, January 30, Wednesday, January 31 and earlier this morning, CME Auction Market participants predict U.S. employers added 134,800 jobs last month, which is significantly lower than economists' forecasts of 160,000 jobs. Chart from this morning's CME Auction (February 1, 7:30 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. EST) Chart from yesterday's CME Auction (January 31, 7:30 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. EST) Chart from Tuesday's CME Auction (January 30, 7:30 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. EST) Upcoming nonfarm payroll auctions that will occur this week include: Thursday, February 1, 3:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. EST Friday, February 2, 7:00 a.m. - 8:00 a.m. EST Click here to view recent auction activity or visit auctions.cme.com. *If you have not already registered to view CME Economic Derivative auction results, you will have to fill out a simple registration form. Introducing the CME Economic Derivatives Weekly Auction Schedule Your weekly schedule of upcoming CME Auction Market dates and times At CME, we continually seek to expand the information available to market participants and industry partners. Today we want to introduce you to another valuable new tool - CME Economic Derivatives Weekly Auction Schedule - a weekly e-mail that provides you with the dates and times of the CME Economic Derivative auctions for the week. Click here to subscribe now

For more information on CME Economic Derivatives, please visit: www.cme.com/economicderivatives or call CME Customer Service at 800-331-3332